[Problem]
Prediction markets like Kalshi are one of the clearest ways to teach expected value, Kelly sizing, and portfolio math on real, moving prices — but every existing tool is either a black-box "tip" service or a raw exchange UI. There was nothing built for students and curious learners to see the math the pros use, on live markets, without risking real money first.
[Approach]
- 01Pulls live Kalshi markets and lets learners filter, sort, and screen for mispricing before the tide turns.
- 02Breaks down every recommendation formula-by-formula — expected value, Kelly fraction, portfolio allocation — so nothing is a black box.
- 03Ships a "dry cast" paper-trade mode alongside a "live cast" mode that routes through the user's own Kalshi API key with a per-session spending cap — the key is AES-256-GCM encrypted on the server and never returned to the browser.
- 04Zero third-party data brokering: no Aomori sync, no ad imports, no student-information system pipes.
[Outcome]
An educational Kalshi companion in beta at tightlinesedu.lovable.app — used to teach the math behind prediction markets on real, live prices without any obligation to trade real money.
[The finished build]
